June 21, 2009

THAN SHWE’S SPDC:One Step Ahead or One Step Behind?
 By Ethan Bourne (BurmawatchUSA Editor)

The whip of George W. Bush and his administration have cornered the Burmese generals and their cronies so hard that there is almost no economic  exits but through ASEAN nations and China. Hiring of lobbyists in Washington D.C.  to have sanctions lifted has not helped the military regime.  As for the U.S. Government, U.S. sanctions have not influenced  the Burmese situation as planned by the policy makers in Washington D.C.  because ASEAN, China and Russia have been collaborating with the Burmese military regime since it took over in 1988.

But when Barack Obama was elected in 2008 as U.S. President,  the U.S. Department of State announced that the U.S. Government would review its policy towards Burma. Barack Obama, a young Democrat who has pragmatic ideas unlike George W . Bush and former Republican Presidents,  was elected because the American people are tired of déjà vu conservative ideas of Republicans who are war-mongers and have no sophisticated ideas to revive the American economy.  Obama’s new ideas of foreign policy initiatives have been welcome by Europe and even by rogue states because flexibility is the key in his policy towards Cuba, Iran and even Burma despite the fact that policy details are still on the table. 

While there has been a change of administration in Washington D.C., the Burmese generals have been busy consulting Chinese and Russian counterparts through the embassies in Rangoon.  Simultaneously, the Ministry of Defense has been receiving North Korean technicians to construct tunnels and upgrade the missile systems.  Sources from Naypyidaw said that the generals reached a concensus during the last 4th quarter meeting to imprison Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of National League for Democracy, the party that won a landslide victiory in the 1990 elections, based on assumed Obama’s flexible foreign policy. The carrot and stick policy of U.S. President Obama  will become an instrument for the Burmese generals according to sources in Naypyidaw.  When Aung San Suu Kyi is in jail, the U.S. Government will ask the Burmese generals to release her  if sanctions are to be lifted according to the so-called carrot and stick policy. That is according to sources from Military Affairs Securty Agency headed by General Ye Myint. Is the Burmese regime one step ahead or one step behind? Time will tell. 

What the regime should be aware of is the carrot could be sanctions being lifted and the stick could be removal of the ruling generals by means of internal forces planted by the CIA. Do the generals know who their officers really are?


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